Scaling the State Interest: Middle Power Alignments Within the Duality of Status Quo and Revisonism

In the evolving dynamics of international politics, new groups of countries, labeled as middle powers or regional powers, among other terms, have gained increased attention and played critical roles, distinct from great powers. This study delves into how these middle powers shape their alliance preferences by using multiple case study method. In this context, the oversight of existing alliance theories in neglecting middle powers is highlighted, with a particular emphasis on the gap in realist literature. To address these shortcomings, the alliance preferences of three historical cases, namely the Ottoman Empire, the Japanese Empire, and the Kingdom of Italy, in the late 19th century have been examined. While the Balance of Interest Theory constitutes the main theoretical framework, modifications have been made where it falls short. The findings of the study confirm the preliminary hypotheses, indicating that the base for middle power state interest and the primary systemic influence on the alliance preferences of middle powers is not the international system but the regional system which they operated in. The regional system forms the foundation for the interest definitions (status quo or revisionism) of middle powers. This is because the capacities of middle powers are limited compared to great powers. Therefore, contrary to the original Balance of Interest Theory, a revisionist middle power can form an alliance with a status quo great power or a status quo middle power can ally with a revisionist great power in an unpredicted manner.

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